The theory of winnings at slots – Is the math real? 

The theory of winnings at slots – Is the math real? 
02.10.2024

Online casino slots are one of the easiest and most popular games in Kenya. It is easier than most other games because you do not have to calculate odds or count cards in your head. However, the mechanisms behind these games are quite the opposite and based on complex mathematical and statistical models. 

Though you do not need to be an expert to play slots online, knowing about the mechanics can help you manage your expectations in the long run. To that end, we will discuss here how slot games work, the role of math in winnings, and how you can use them to your advantage. 

How do slot machines work? 

Random Number Generator (RNG) is the core mechanism behind every slot game you play online. This algorithm is responsible for producing random outcomes each time you press the spin button. 

As soon as you hit the spin button, the RNG generates sequences of numbers for specific reels and determines the outcome. The spinning of reels is just for aesthetics to keep you engaged. As slots use RNG software, every single spin is independent of the previous one. Thus, the outcomes of your spins are truly random. 

Casino slots usually feature three or five virtual reels that hold a certain number of symbols. Some of them even offer six or seven reels. There are predetermined paylines on which symbols align to form winning combos. 

Activating more paylines increases the chance of hitting winning combinations. The virtual reel mapping shows how often specific symbols like jackpots appear. This mapping results in reel weighting, where low value symbols are more likely to be selected by the RNG. 

The concept of RTP 

Return to Player (RTP) is a metric that shows the percentage of total money wagered on a slot game that will be returned to players in the long run. For instance, if you are playing a casino slot in Kenya with a 97% RTP, it is expected to pay out $97 on average for every $100 bet in the long run. The higher the RTP, the better winning chances you have. 

In simplest words, “the long run” means millions of spins. The RNG generates an independent and random outcome on each spin. When you weigh the winnings against the bets of a huge number of spins, you will get a percentage close to the theoretical RTP. The higher the number of spins, the closer you get to the RTP percentage. In the short run, results can vary widely. 

If you want to calculate the RTP based on your gameplay, you can follow this formula: 

  • RTP (%) = (Amount won / Amount wagered) x 100 

The role of mathematics in slot winnings 

RTP is just one mathematical instrument behind casino slots. There are several other factors like the probability of winning and volatility that influences the outcome of your spins. We will go over these factors in the subsequent sections below.  

Probability and outcomes 

Say, you are playing a slot game online that offers three reels with 10 symbols on each of them. The total number of possible outcomes here is 10 x 10 x 10 = 1,000. If there is only one combo that results in a jackpot, then your chances of winning the jackpot is one in 1,000. 

However, modern casino slots have more complex games. There can be multiple paylines, with more reels and symbols. Some slots even offer you pay both ways mechanism along with special types of reels and symbols. For these games, calculating your probability of specific outcomes can be very complicated; but not impossible, however. 

The impact of volatility on winnings 

Volatility in online slots refers to the risk level associated with the game. This mechanism directly influences the size and frequency of winnings. There can be three types of volatility: 

  • High volatility – highly volatile slots pay out less often but the payouts are very large. 
  • Low volatility – these games pay out more frequently but in smaller amounts. 
  • Medium volatility – slots with medium volatility offer a middle ground with moderate winnings in a moderate frequency. 

Choose high volatility games if you are focusing on lower bets to extend playtime and survive a dry spell. Low volatility slots allow for more consistent betting if you are aiming for a gradual bankroll growth. The safest way to maximize winnings is by choosing a high RTP slot with low volatility. 

Can mathematical theories increase your chances of winning? 

While mathematical theories provide insight into how slot games work, they cannot significantly increase your chances of winning in the short term. That is because the outcomes are completely random in the short run. Metrics like RTP and volatility can only help you make decisions. 

The myth of beating the system 

Gambler’s Fallacy is one of the most common myths where players think that you can beat the system with specific strategies, timing, or luck. In reality, slots do not even work like that as the RNG software determines completely random and independent outcomes. 

On top of that, every game has a house edge. For a 97% RTP slot game, the house edge is 100% – 97% = 3%. This means that the casino will get $3 for every $100 wager in the long run. This means that while you may have winning sessions in the short term, the odds are stacked in favor of the house over time. The bottom line is, the casino always wins and you can not beat the system. 

Long-term vs. short-term play 

In the short run, online slot outcomes might seem highly erratic. You may experience significant wins, long-losing streaks, or even a jackpot on your very first spin. The slot’s volatility might make some difference but it is impossible to predict the outcome of your spins. You might be attracted to the short term outcome if you are in surplus, but in the long run, the casino will eventually even out the payouts. 

Long term play is where the actual math comes into action. That is because slot outcomes tend to move towards the theoretical RTP in the long run. So, if you have played thousands or millions of rounds on a specific slot game, you can safely assume that the ratio of your winnings to bets will be significantly close to the RTP of the game. Eventually, the house edge keeps the casinos afloat as there is a profit margin. 

The balance between luck and strategy 

So far, we have established that even though math is at the core of online slot games, luck eventually determines your winnings. You have no control over the games as they are dependent on RNGs. However, you can be strategic and enhance your gaming experience. Below are a few tips that might help: 

  • Choose high RTP slots – high RTP slots will pay you more in the long run, so they are always the safer option. 
  • Choose the right volatility – if you prefer more frequent wins, go for low volatility games. If you like the thrill of big wins, highly volatile slots are perfect for you. 
  • Manage your bankroll efficiently – set a budget along with win and loss limits. As slot games are inherently unpredictable, this will help you understand when to leave the game. Always stick to your limits and never chase losses. 

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