Sportpesa is arguably Kenya’s largest and most famous betting company, also known internationally for sponsoring Premier League clubs Everton and Hull City. The company’s selling point is its massive jackpot, which frequently surpasses Ksh 200 million, and most recently broke the Ksh 380 million mark. Indeed, the largest jackpot win in Kenyan history was Gordon Ogada’s Ksh 230,742,881 win in the 2018 Sportpesa mega jackpot.
While the Sportpesa jackpot is incredibly lucrative, it is also notoriously hard to win, with the last mega jackpot win occurring in 2018. That doesn’t mean that it is impossible to win, as the cases of Gordon Ogada and Samuel Abisai, another big winner, illustrate. Below, we have compiled a comprehensive guide on how to play and improve your odds of winning the Sportpesa jackpot in Kenya.
What is the Sportpesa Jackpot and how does it work?
The Sportpesa jackpot typically involves 13 pre-selected games, and it is won by the player who correctly predicts the results of all the games. Players usually have 3 betting options, namely: a home team win, a draw, or a win for the away team.
Recently, the company split the jackpot into 5 mini-jackpots depending on the number of games involved. The mini-jackpots are as follows:
- Mega Jackpot Pro 17
- Mega Jackpot Pro 16
- Mega Jackpot Pro 15
- Mega Jackpot Pro 14
- Mega Jackpot Pro 13
As the name suggests, the Mega Jackpot Pro 17 is the largest of the bonuses, and hence the most lucrative. On the other hand, the Mega Jackpot Pro 13 used to be the main jackpot but has since been overshadowed by the more lucrative versions. Nonetheless, all the jackpot have one thing in common – they all take place during the weekends. For weekday games, the company runs another jackpot called the Sportpesa Midweek Jackpot, with prize money often ranging from Ksh 10 million to Ksh 20 million.
Also worth noting is the fact that the jackpot amount is generally split according to the number of winners. For instance, if 10 players got the mega jackpot prediction – 17 games right, the stated jackpot amount will be divided by 10. Remarkably, the Sportpesa jackpots are not winner-take-all affairs, as players who get most predictions correct in every jackpot are also rewarded.
What are my chances of winning the Sportpesa jackpot?
You probably know that winning a jackpot as big as the Sportpesa jackpot or the Sportpesa Mega Jackpot requires a considerable stroke of luck. But what are the exact odds? Well, let’s get into some maths!
Let’s use the Sportpesa Mega Jackpot Pro 13 for illustration purposes. For each match in the jackpot, you get three possible outcomes: Home win (1), Draw (2), Away win (2). In simple terms, you have 1 in 3 chance, or 33.3% probability, of guessing the outcome correctly if you were to bet on one match. For 13 matches, we can calculate your chances as follows:
Take n as the Number of Matches
Take o as the Outcomes per Match
Take C as the Total Combinations and is equals to on
For the calculation
n = 13
0 = 3
So, C = 313
This is equals to 1,594,323
Simply put, the 13-game Sportpesa Jackpot has 1,594,323 possible combinations of outcomes.
To calculate the probability of winning the jackpot
To determine the possibility of your predictions in all 13 games being correct, we use the formula 1÷ C
That is, 1÷ 1,594,323, which equals to 0.000000627
As a percentage, this translates to a 0.0000627% chance of winning the jackpot. In terms of odds, you have a 1 in 1.6 million chance.
For context, you are twice more likely to be hit by an asteroid (1 in 700,000 chance) than winning the Sportpesa jackpot. The odds for the jackpot increase exponentially when you add more games, with the Sportpesa Mega Jackpot prediction -17 games having odds of 1 in around 100 million.
Again, this is not to discourage you from trying the jackpot. Instead, it is meant to help you temper your expectations and not be too hard on yourself if you fail to win.
How to play the Sportpesa jackpot?
To make it easier for the millions of bettors in Kenya to participate in the Mega Jackpot, Sportpesa has made the whole process as simple as it can get. Here is a step-by-step guide on how to get started:
1. Open a Sportpesa account
Jackpot entries are only available to registered users. Luckily, opening an account is quite easy, as you only need your Kenyan phone number and a password. If you already have an account simply log in with your credentials.
2. Fund your account
You need at least Ksh 99 to place any jackpot bet, so you need to make sure there are some funds in your account before you proceed. You can make a deposit by navigating to the Deposit section in your Sportpesa dashboard and entering your preferred payment method and amount you want to deposit. From our experience, the fastest and most convenient way to make the deposit is via M-pesa.
3. Choose a jackpot
As mentioned above, there are different jackpots to choose from, each with its own reward pool. If you wish to compete for the big money, you can go for the Mega Jackpot Pro 17. Conversely, the Mega Jackpot Pro13 would be a great choice if you fancy something more manageable.
4. Place Your Sportpesa mega jackpot prediction
Once you click your preferred jackpot, you will get to see the pre-selected games for the week. Depending on your analysis, you can select a Win for the home team, an Away win, or a Draw. If you’re unsure of what outcomes to pick, use the “Quick Pick” option to have the site’s algorithm select your predictions.
You are also allowed to go for a Double Chance, where you can bet on two possible outcomes, such as a Home Win or Draw (1X). However, this will increase the cost of your wager to slightly more than the standard Ksh 99.
5. Confirm your picks
Look through your predictions and click on the Done button if you’re satisfied. The bet will be completed if you have the required amount in your balance.
6. Wait
Sportpesa pays out once every game in a jackpot is complete and results become official so be patient after placing your bet.
Increasing your chances of winning the Sportpesa jackpot
While luck is the biggest determinant of whether you win the jackpot or not, there are some things you can do to significantly improve your winning chances. Here are our top tips on how to win the Sportpesa jackpot:
1. Look beyond the surface
Most players mistakenly believe that the odds attached to each team are an indicator of the team’s strengths. This is not always true, and teams with more odds (seemingly weaker) are constantly pulling off upsets over stronger opponents.
When placing your bet, look beyond the presented odds and into factors like head-to-head records, recent form, injured players, manager status, and tournament standings. These often offer clearer pictures than anything else.
2. Understand the psychology of football
Certain outcomes are more likely in certain times of the year or in certain tournaments than in others. For instance, teams in the relegation zone in the English Premier League tend to win more games during the final weeks of the season than entrenched mid-table games. Also, top league teams often field weaker lineups in the early stages of secondary competitions like league cups and are thus more likely to lose these games. With things like these in mind, you can make more informed predictions in your jackpot.
3. Use the double chance feature liberally
While it may increase your total wager, using the Double Chance option in matches you consider tricky can significantly improve your chances of winning. For instance, in the El Classico match between Spanish La Liga Giants Barcelona and Real Madrid, it is incredibly difficult to determine which of the two teams will win.
For one, recent form goes out of the window in derby matches as the teams involved are generally more motivated than usual. So, in the El Classico, a Double Chance bet of (12) a Home or Away win would be more likely to succeed than a single prediction.
4. Avoid personal biases
Every football enthusiast has their favorite team(s) and their least favorite ones as well. Now, it’s very tempting to bet on your favorite teams even when the data is not on your side. While this may work sometimes, it will fail you more often than not. The best approach is to stay objective and strictly base your predictions on the data and information you gather.
5. Place multiple bets
In all honesty, your single jackpot entry has very little chance of succeeding as the possible outcomes are just too many. One way to increase your chances is to buy multiple tickets with different predictions.
Fortunately, Sportpesa allows you to do make multiple bets in a single jackpot. However, the cost can easily rack up as you purchase more tickets. As such, we recommend partnering with your friends and pooling your funds and analytical skills together to place more bets covering multiple outcomes. This may mean you get lower payouts as you have to split with others, but it also means your chances of winning are higher.
Play the Sportpesa jackpot today and you could be lucky!
Winning the Sportpesa Jackpot could change your life and those of your loved ones forever. While the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against you from the start, it is possible to win if you get a timely stroke of luck. While there’s no way to guarantee a win in betting, our tips above can help you make better predictions and slightly boost your chances. With the knowledge, and a little bit of luck, you just may be the next Sportpesa millionaire!
